Is the personal computer dead?

Computing is changing. But where does all this change leave the trusty PC?

For the best part of three decades information workers have been accustomed to creating and consuming data and information through desktop personal computers. Microsoft and the myriad hardware and software makers have benefitted from this trend, and now the PC is entrenched in our daily lives – both business and personal.

Within the past year, leading analyst firms are now predicting that shipments of smartphone devices will soon surpass personal computers for the first time. Tablet devices are also selling in the tens of millions of units, adding fuel to the argument that the industry is entering a phase where the personal computer is no longer the dominant computing device. Does this mean the PC is dead?

Reports of the PC's death are exaggerated

Borrowing from Mark Twain, the rise of smartphone and tablet devices will not kill but will rather complement the desktop PC and laptop form factors for many years to come.

Whilst Microsoft has long been a proponent of slate, or tablet, devices, it’s been the smart design and polished execution of the Apple iPhone and iPad that have triggered a new wave of innovation within the computing industry and have largely been responsible for the “post PC” discussion.

Despite the impact of these devices, and the waves of devices that will come into the market, the PC is by no means dead.

Forrester Research forecast that, even in the US where this change is occurring most rapidly and the PC is a mature market, that consumer laptop sales will still grow at a compound annual growth rate of 8% between 2010 and 2015, while desktop PC sales will only slightly decline. By 2015 though, while Forrester estimates 140 million US consumers will possess laptops, 82 million consumers will own a tablet or slate device.

In other words, there’s room for all kinds of devices. Microsoft has always talked of the proverbial “three screens”: the phone, the PC and the television. Inevitably, this story has evolved to include tablets as well – as it must, as this is what the market wants. There is a significant groundswell towards tablet devices and Microsoft is evolving its story to counter its increasingly popular and influential competitors.

Head in the sand strategy?

But while the PC still has years of life left in it, the next release of Windows – Windows 8 – will be carefully monitored to see if it embraces the change towards mobile computing or tries to ignore it. Early previews of Windows 8 have shown that Microsoft is fully aware of the market desire to adopt tablet devices and is building an OS that can be used in multiple form factors. More will be revealed at Microsoft’s Build conference in September.

Critics of Microsoft believe it has to think radically differently in order to maintain its pivotal role in the computing ecosystem. By religiously maintaining its focus on Windows, Microsoft has been accused of being hell-bent on protecting its Windows franchise, risking it all by adopting the proverbial “head in the sand” strategy. Putting aside the financial implications of weakening its Windows franchise (which are significant), is Microsoft wanting to protect the short-term while ignoring the long-term? Should it rethink its dependencies and pursue a strategy less dependent on Windows?

Whatever Microsoft does, it’s being closely watched. With 400 million PCs now running Windows 7, there is a significant user base that will deliver value for the company for many years to come – and that’s ignoring the earlier versions of the operating system out there.

Enterprises are a proven market for Microsoft and its offerings. Enterprises rely on a familiar, stable and – importantly – manageable operating system, something that other OS vendors can’t currently rival. While consumers may be attracted by the hardware and software of other vendors, priorities are different in the enterprise, where productivity and stability remain topmost in enterprise CIOs’ minds. Enterprises have also invested significant sums in management tools and employee training, so any purchasing decision needs to take a broad cross-section of considerations into account. In other words, it’s the enterprise where the real money is for Microsoft and where Windows 8 could quickly build up some serious momentum.

Hardware makers are also going to support Microsoft. While the likes of HP and Dell will produce non-Microsoft-based devices, for true mass adoption – particularly in the enterprise – Microsoft will never not be in the mix, and these manufacturers will create new hardware designs to differentiate in the market, creating more choice for purchasers.

It’s about the users

Ultimately, the success of any technology offering is dependent on the marketplace and – to an increasingly large extent – what the users want. The reality is we’re all going to create and consume information in different ways, at different times and in different places – and we’re going to use a range of devices in the process. Tablet devices are going to make their way into organisations either by design or accident, and the next few years will be critical for Microsoft to show it has the vision and smarts to pivot itself and adapt to a marketplace that’s rapidly evolving.

tim.howell@intergen.co.nz